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US stock market, economy and companies update (February 26, 2015)

February 26, 2015, Thursday
 The US January CPI inflation report roiled global markets earlier this morning, although the volatility stemming from the data has pretty much subsided mid-morning. As of writing, the DJIA is up 0.04%, the S&P500 is down 0.11% and the Nasdaq is up 0.28%. The US CPI inflation reading for January has fallen into negative territory for the first time since December 2009, with the -0.1% decline a big slip from the prior month's +0.8% reading.

European stock market, economy and companies update (February 26, 2015)

February 26, 2015, Thursday
China PBoC approves additional 0.5% of targeted RRR cuts for more city banks. Numerous European 10-year govt bond yields hit fresh record lows (Germany, Italy, Portugal, Ireland) ahead of start of ECB QE buying. Germany Mar GfK Consumer Confidence rises to 14 year highs. Germany Feb Unemployment improves for the 5th straight month with rate matching record low of 6.5%.

UK stock market morning note (February 26, 2015)

February 26, 2015, Thursday
 The FTSE 100 is called to open lower this morning following the mixed overnight performances on Wall Street and in Asia. Greece and the situation in Ukraine remain in the background with investors looking for a new sense of direction in the markets. The economic diary today sees the release of the second estimate of UK GDP for the last quarter followed at lunchtime in the US with inflation data and the latest US weekly jobless claims.

UK stock market morning note (February 26, 2015)

February 26, 2015, Thursday
 The official data on growth of the oil reserves in the US showed slightly less adding that projected by the morning forecasts by API, given led to oil prices strengthening by 3.8% at 61.5 USD. At the back of the new round of oil price bounce up ruble might continue climbing and that might support the domestic demand stocks instead of the exporters. However, the foreign political background remains tense as overnight several western leaders have announced that the matters of more sanctions against Russia are still on the agenda.

UK stock market commentary (February 26, 2015): Tsipras can’t please anyone

February 26, 2015, Thursday
 European equities are set to tread cautiously on the open. A lack of clear direction and mixed sessions descended onto the markets yesterday on both sides of the Atlantic and we are set to see the same again this morning. Doubts are setting in over the viability of the Greek debt deal. On the one hand he Germans are instinctively dis-trustful of the Greeks ability to meet their commitments whilst in Greece itself, hard-line left wingers are disappointed that Tsipras bowed down to creditors and reneged on policies he was elected on.

Asian stock market, economy and companies update (February 26, 2015)

February 26, 2015, Thursday
AUD/USD is the biggest mover among the dollar majors, falling about 50pips below $0.7840 following a worse than expected set of Capex data from Australia. Expenditures fell q/q for the 2nd straight quarter, estimates for FY14/15 were revised down to A$152.7B vs A$153.2B, while the initial FY15/16 forecast was set at A$109.8B - down over 12% from initial forecast for FY14/15. Fixed income markets reacted by once again repricing expectations of RBA rate cut, with a marginal probability now tilting in favor of another 25bp move to 2.00% move next week.

News

Global Outlook

Roman Abramovich Invests $15M In New US Fracking Technology

February 25, 2015, Wednesday
Are the Russians coming to Texas riding the tailwinds of fracking? That depends on who you ask, as some believe Russian forces were behind the anti-fracking vote in Denton, while a $15 million investment in new Texas fracking technology by Roman Abramovich perhaps tells another story. When the anti-fracking campaign started to heat up late last year in Denton, Texas—the heart of the shale revolution—conspiracy theories were spread from within the pro-fracking community that the Russians were behind the whole thing.

The Easy Oil Is Gone So Where Do We Look Now?

February 25, 2015, Wednesday
In 2008, Canadian economist Jeff Rubin stunned the oil market with a bold prediction: With the world economy growing at 5 percent a year, oil demand would grow with it, outpacing supply, thus lifting the oil price from $147 to over $200 a barrel. The former chief economist at CIBC World Markets was so convinced of his thesis, he wrote a book about it.

Gathering thin reeds?

February 24, 2015, Tuesday
Many of you know that I spend time gathering “thin reeds” and try to weave them into a favorable “investment bouquet.” This is a strategy Fidelity’s Peter Lynch took to its zenith in an era gone by. Recall the story Peter told about how he stumbled into Magellan Fund’s (FMAGX/$96.12) investment in Hanes, when he first heard his wife rave about a new product called pantyhose.

Is Oil Returning To $100 Or Dropping To $10?

February 24, 2015, Tuesday
If you have been following the price of oil over the last few months, the chances are you're a little confused. On the one hand you have the likes of A. Gary Shilling who, in this Bloomberg article, loudly trumpets the prospect of oil at $10/Barrel, and on the other there is T. Boone Pickens, who, at the end of last year was predicting a return to $100 within 12-18 months.

Recommendations

Styrolution ABS 4QFY2015 performance highlights and results update

February 24, 2015, Tuesday
Styrolution ABS (Styrolution) reported a disappointing set of numbers for 4QFY2015. Its top-line declined by 12.2% yoy to Rs.303cr (lower by 12% as compared to our estimate of Rs.344cr) as volume declined to 20.8kt against 22.4kt a year ago. The EBITDA declined by 23.4% yoy and came in at Rs.16cr, while margins contracted by 76bp yoy to 5.2% owing to higher employee cost as a percentage of sales.

Sanofi India 4QCY2014 performance highlights and results update

February 24, 2015, Tuesday
Sanofi India (Sanofi)’s 4QCY2014 results have come in below expectations both on the top-line and the bottom-line front. The company posted sales of Rs.481cr (V/s an expected Rs.518cr), ie a yoy growth of 4.3%. Sales were impacted owing to the recent price cuts announced on its key CVS drugs, in line with the DPCO 2013. The company posted an OPM of 5.2% (V/s an expected 16.4%), a yoy dip of 13.6 percentage points.