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Reports

European stock market, economy and companies update (October 23, 2014)

October 23, 2014, Thursday
Japan Manufacturing PMI: 52.8 v 52.0e (5th straight month of expansion, highest since March). China HSBC Manufacturing PMI 3-month high (50.4 vs. 50.2e). Global dis-inflation remains a theme; New Zealand inflation slows to a 5-quarter low giving RBNZ scope to prolong its current pause during its tightening phase; Singapore Sept CPI MoM turns negative

UK stock market morning note (October 23, 2014)

October 23, 2014, Thursday
 The FTSE 100 is called to open lower this morning following the performances on Wall Street and in Asia. Overnight we saw the release of the HSBC flash Chinese manufacturing PMI which came in slightly above forecast at 50.4, so just ahead of the key 50 level expansion mark. Investors will now focus on further data due out today including domestic retail sales figures, the CBI industrial order trends survey, the latest US weekly jobless claims and day one of an EU economic summit.

UK stock market commentary (October 23, 2014): Markets dawdling on a cliff edge

October 23, 2014, Thursday
 European equities are set to decline on the open following weak overnight sessions in the US and Asia. Despite Europe’s best efforts at trying to make a definitive move off of the recent lows are set to be thwarted as today’s open should wipe out all of yesterdays work from the bulls. Although the apocalyptic visions from last week have abated there’s too much uncertainty still lingering preventing the bargain hunters from stepping up so we see markets consolidating until they get some sort of clarity.

Asian stock market, economy and companies update (October 23, 2014)

October 23, 2014, Thursday
The keenly awaited China Flash manufacturing PMI for October did not disappoint but also did not offer much to get excited about. Although the headline hit a 3-month high, remained above the expansion threshold, and also topped estimates, the Output index hit a 5-month low of 50.7 v 51.3 prior. Other notable components were also mixed - Employment deteriorated but at a slower rate, while Export Orders increased at a slower rate and Input Prices decreased at a faster rate.

Malaysia stock market and companies daily report (October 23, 2014)

October 23, 2014, Thursday
 CIMB Equities Research noted that Axis Real Estate Investment Trust (Axis REIT) ‘s performance is in line, after recording a core net profit of RM61.9 million in 9M14, which makes up 62 percent its full-year estimates. For the three-month period ended 30 September, Daibochi Plastic and Packaging Industry’s revenue declined 4.8 percent to RM83.1 million, due to lower contributions from its property business, which is being phased out.

Singapore stock market and companies daily report (Keppel Corp, SGX, ST Engg) (October 23, 2014)

October 23, 2014, Thursday
 Keppel Corporation posted an 8.1 percent advance in revenue to $3.2 billion for the third quarter ended 30 September 2014, attributable to higher revenue recognition from ongoing projects in the group’s offshore and marine division. Singapore Exchange’s operating revenue declined 8.3 percent to $168.9 million for the first quarter ended 30 September 2014, mainly as a result of reduced contribution from the securities and depository business. Singapore Technologies Engineering bagged several contracts that are worth a total of $450 million.

News

    Risk and Uncertainty, Confidence and Fear

    21 October 2014
    In recent weeks, the financial markets appear to have been reacting less to weaker expectations of global growth and more to the increased downside risks – that is, to the fear that things could get a lot worse. The downside risks to Europe are considerable, but America is much less dependent on exports than most other countries and the prospects for moderately strong growth into 2015 remain promising.

    Global Worries (And Some Benefits)

    14 October 2014
    In the latest update of its World Economic Outlook, the IMF revised lower its expectations of global growth in 2014 and 2015. None of that should have surprised anyone. At this point, the IMF expects that European GDP will be relatively weak in 2014 (+0.8% 4Q14/4Q13) and should improve in 2015 (+1.6% 4Q15/4Q14). However, risks are weighted predominately to the downside. Weaker European growth and a stronger dollar will have a significant impact on many U.S. firms, but may have some benefits for the economy as a whole.

    Looking Back, Looking Ahead

    30 September 2014
    Real GDP is now estimated to have risen at a 4.6% annual rate in 2Q14. However, the second quarter’s strength must be balanced against the first quarter’s weakness (a -2.1% pace). As the third quarter ends, we still don’t have a complete picture. However, figures are likely to suggest a moderately strong pace of growth and a gradual taking up of economic slack.

    The Dots

    23 September 2014
    As was widely anticipated, Federal Reserve policymakers reduced the monthly pace of asset purchases by another $10 billion and kept the “considerable time” language. Fed policymakers revised slightly their forecasts of growth, unemployment, and inflation. However, the really interesting item in the Fed’s Summary of Economic Projections was the dot plot, the projections of the appropriate year-end level of the federal funds rate for each of the next few years. There is a huge range of uncertainty among Fed officials.

    Mind Your Language!

    16 September 2014
    The Federal Open Market Committee is widely expected to take another trip to Taper Town on Wednesday, reducing the monthly pace of asset purchases by another $10 billion, one step closer to ending the program in late October. The more interesting issue is whether we’ll see any change in the Fed’s forward guidance on short-term interest rates – specifically, whether the FOMC will jettison the “considerable time” language.

    Forex

Global Outlook

Low Oil Prices Hurting U.S. Shale Operations

October 22, 2014, Wednesday
Slumping oil prices are putting pressure on U.S. drillers. The number of active rigs drilling for oil and gas fell by their most in two months, according to the latest data from oil services firm Baker Hughes. There were 19 oil rigs that were removed from operation as of Oct. 17, compared to the prior week.

Pick Your Poison: The Bear Vs. The Bull

October 22, 2014, Wednesday
The engine that is the U.S. economy is strong and will continue to support earnings growth in the high single-digits, markets aren’t absolutely expensive looking at 2014 and 2015 expected earnings (mid-teens multiple), global central bankers are committed to getting inflation back and won’t stop until they do, the cure for low commodity prices is low commodity prices.

There She Goes, My Beautiful World

October 22, 2014, Wednesday
The S&P 500 spent almost two full years, between the fall of 2012 and this past September, above its 200-day moving average. For 475 consecutive trading days, stocks remained in a pristine, untouched uptrend - the longest such event in stock market history.

Downtown Josh Brown On Smart Money Being Stupid

October 22, 2014, Wednesday
Joshua Brown, CEO of Ritholtz Wealth Management, is known for a lot of things -television appearances, tweeting as @downtownjoshbrown to his 86,000 followers, a widely read blog and his story of going from a commission-based broker to a fee-based adviser. It's a story captured perfectly in the name of his website: TheReformedBroker.com.

Recommendations

Indoco Remedies 2QFY2015 performance highlights and results update

October 22, 2014, Wednesday
For 2QFY2015, Indoco Remedies (Indoco) posted results much below our expectations on the net sales and profit fronts. Sales came in at Rs.226cr (V/s an xpected Rs.257cr), posting a yoy growth of 16.1%. The sales growth was mainly driven by exports, which grew 21.1% yoy, while domestic sales grew by 13.3% yoy.

Alembic Pharmaceuticals 2QFY2015 performance highlights and results update

October 22, 2014, Wednesday
For 2QFY2015, Alembic Pharmaceuticals (Alembic Pharma)’ sales and profit came in below our expectations. The sales and net profit came in at Rs.539cr (V/s an expected Rs.568cr) and Rs.84cr (V/s an expected Rs.88cr), posting a yoy growth of 11.7% yoy and 31.7%, respectively. On the operating front, the gross margin came in at 64.8% V/s 60.7% in 2QFY2014; consequently taking the operating margin to 21.2% V/s 19.6% in 2QFY2014.