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Reports

US stock market, economy and companies update (December 19, 2014)

December 19, 2014, Friday
 Energy and materials names are among the biggest gainers in the S&P500 this morning as broader equity markets move higher again this morning. Crude is moving sideways again this morning, with WTI around $55.70 and Brent is back around $62. Today is quadruple witching, driving above-average trading volume. As of writing, the DJIA is about flat, the S&P500 is up 0.28% and the Nasdaq is flat.

European stock market, economy and companies update (December 19, 2014)

December 19, 2014, Friday
In China, the Stats Bureau revised up its 2013 GDP target by 3.4%, in line with earlier speculation, to reflect the latest census data. BOJ keeps policy steady (as expected) in an 8-1 vote; keeps inflation target timeline unchanged despite recent decline in oil prices. German Gfk consumer confidence beat expectations and hits an 8-year high.

Russian stock market daily morning report (December 19, 2014, Friday)

December 19, 2014, Friday
Western market indices closed their sessions with confident growth. Asian indices showed upside dynamics from Friday morning. The oil fixated overnight above 61.5 USD per bbl, and as expected, it once again went below 60 USD. We assume that Friday the Russian market’s dynamics will depend on the foreign background, and the intention of the investors to buy the slipped stocks of the Russian companies at cheap prices.

UK stock market morning note (December 19, 2014)

December 19, 2014, Friday
 The FTSE 100 is called to open higher this morning following the performances on Wall Street and in Asia as equity markets continued to react positively to the FOMC statement. Overnight we had two sets of domestic economic data showing that UK consumer confidence fell slightly this month. The GfK index declined to -4 from -1 in November and the CEBR and YouGov index fell by 1.2 points to 110.1.

Asian stock market, economy and companies update (December 19, 2014)

December 19, 2014, Friday
Broad-based risk-on rally that gave US stocks their biggest two-day gain of the year continued to reverberate in Asia. The recently oversold high-beta commodity sector of Australia has helped to pull the ASX200 by over 2%, with sharp gains in energy and metals. USD/JPY hit a fresh 1-week high of 119.40, helping Nikkei225 build on its gains. In China, Shanghai Composite was down in the morning session, but entered the final hour of trade with a new 4-year high above 3,100.

UK stock market commentary (December 19, 2014): Forget the news, let’s play follow the leader

December 19, 2014, Friday
 European equities are set to surge tracking bullish sessions overnight in the US and Asia. The divergent interpretation of yesterday’s FOMC continues to spread apart with equities guys taking it as dovish whilst FX and bonds guys took it as hawkish. Even though the oil price continues to plunge and Russia’s about to enter the economic winter of recession, there are rumblings in the Chinese credit markets and Greece could be about to kick of the Eurozone crisis again, risk on sentiment is set to pervade in Europe today solely because of US bullish hysteria.

News

Global Outlook

Please make it stop!

December 16, 2014, Tuesday
He said: “Jeff, you sure were right in Thursday morning’s verbal strategy comments when you said we should get a bounce following Wednesday’s 90% Downside Day, but that that bounce should not hold and for the perfect set-up to occur for the Santa Rally would be to have the S&P 500 come back down and travel into the 2000 – 2010 level.”

Black Gold Loses Glitter

December 15, 2014, Monday
The stunning 40% drop in the price of oil over the past few months has scrambled global economic forecasts, changed the geo-political landscape, and has severely pressured many energy sector investments. Economists are scratching their heads to determine if the drop is good or bad for the economy or whether cheap oil will add to or decrease unemployment, or complicate the global effort to "defeat" deflation.

Oil Price Tumbles After OPEC Releases 2015 Forecast

December 11, 2014, Thursday
The demand for oil in 2015 will drop to its lowest level since 2002 because of an oversupply of crude and stagnant economies in China and Europe, according to OPEC's latest forecast. And that's just one of several sour estimates. OPEC's monthly report said demand for the cartel's oil will fall to 28.9 million barrels per day next year, 280,000 barrels lower than its previous forecast and the lowest in 12 years.

Quote of the Week

December 10, 2014, Wednesday
“Think of it this way. Lower oil prices are to America what low labor prices were to the BRICs!”... Sara Eisen, CNBC. As most of you know I was in New York City most of last week seeing institutional accounts, doing media and speaking at various events. One of the media appearances was to co-host CNBC’s “Closing Bell” on Tuesday, with the sagacious Sara Eisen, who unsurprisingly gave me the quote of the week. The quote was, “Think of it this way, lower oil prices are to America what lower labor costs were to the BRICs!”

Recommendations

MRF 2QFY2015 performance highlights and results update

November 28, 2014, Friday
For 4QSY2014, MRF reported an excellent set of numbers. Its top-line grew by 6.8% yoy to Rs.3,361cr, above our estimate of Rs.3,281cr. During the quarter, the company’s raw material cost as a percentage of sales surprised positively, declining by 443bp yoy to 59.5%. Employee expense as a percentage of sales declined by 37bp yoy to 5.4% while other expenses as a percentage of sales increased marginally by 57bp yoy to 17.1%.

Abbott India 2QFY2015 performance highlights and results update

November 24, 2014, Monday
For 2QFY2015, Abbott India (AIL) reported a good set of results. Its top-line grew by 28.9% yoy to Rs.589cr. Although the raw material cost as a percentage of sales increased marginally by 47bp yoy to 58%, the employee and other expenses as a percentage of sales declined by 49bp yoy and 59bp yoy to 12.9% and 14.1% respectively. As a result, the EBITDA margin witnessed a slight improvement of 61bp yoy to 14.9%.