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Reports

US stock market, economy and companies update (October 24, 2014)

October 24, 2014, Friday
 Markets are choppy this morning as traders digest the New York City Ebola scare, EU bank stress test results and tons of major earnings reports. Note that comments by ECB President Draghi at the EU Leader Summit in Brussels seem to have helped lift US equities out of the red mid morning. As of writing, the DJIA is up 0.34%, the S&P500 is up 0.22% and the Nasdaq is up 0.32%.

Asian stock market, economy and companies update (October 24, 2014)

October 24, 2014, Friday
Risk appetite infected by NYC Ebola scare. Looming weekend for event risk with ECB stress test results; also elections in Brazil and Ukraine. China released another troubling report on the housing sector, with property prices rising y/y in just 10 out of 70 cities vs 48 in the prior month. UK Q3 Advance GDP in line with consensus but below BOE's forecast

UK stock market morning note (October 24, 2014)

October 24, 2014, Friday
 The FTSE 100 is called to open lower this morning with sentiment being hit by news of an Ebola case in New York which has impacted the Asian markets overnight. The economic diary today sees the release of the first reading of UK GDP for Q3 followed by US new home sales data this afternoon. It is also day 2 of the EU economic summit. Commodity prices are mixed and on the foreign exchanges, the dollar is slightly weaker against the pound, euro and yen but all are within narrow trading ranges ahead of these data releases.

UK stock market commentary (October 24, 2014): Bullish momentum waning?

October 24, 2014, Friday
 European equities are set to fall on the open following overnight news that ebola has hit New York. Although the regular cash session in the US saw some impressive gains, when the story broke that a doctor in New York was confirmed to have ebola the Dow futures shed over 100 points. Interestingly, although the European markets are taking their cue from the US overnight futures session, Asian markets seemed to have shrugged it off and are instead taking their cue from the positive cash session.

Asian stock market, economy and companies update (October 24, 2014)

October 24, 2014, Friday
After several days in remission, Ebola concerns have resurfaced with a vengeance, initially spoiling about a third of a steep rally in the final hour of US trading session and subsequently turning back risk flows in Asia. A doctor who had volunteered in Africa and recently returned to NYC was reported to have checked into the hospital this afternoon with symptoms. Subsequent tests have now come back positive.

Malaysia stock market and companies daily report (October 24, 2014)

October 24, 2014, Friday
 Kulim (M) expects to record a gain of RM1.6 billion from the sale of its 49 percent stake in New Britain Palm Oil (NBPOL) for GBP525.4 million (RM2.8 billion) to Sime Darby, stating there were no superior offers from other parties. Malaysia Airports Holdings (MAHB) has exercised its right of first right refusal to acquire the remaining 40 percent stake in Istanbul Sabiha Gokcen International Airport Investment Development and Operation as well as LGMHavalimani Isletmeleri Ticaret ve Turizm.

News

    Risk and Uncertainty, Confidence and Fear

    21 October 2014
    In recent weeks, the financial markets appear to have been reacting less to weaker expectations of global growth and more to the increased downside risks – that is, to the fear that things could get a lot worse. The downside risks to Europe are considerable, but America is much less dependent on exports than most other countries and the prospects for moderately strong growth into 2015 remain promising.

    Global Worries (And Some Benefits)

    14 October 2014
    In the latest update of its World Economic Outlook, the IMF revised lower its expectations of global growth in 2014 and 2015. None of that should have surprised anyone. At this point, the IMF expects that European GDP will be relatively weak in 2014 (+0.8% 4Q14/4Q13) and should improve in 2015 (+1.6% 4Q15/4Q14). However, risks are weighted predominately to the downside. Weaker European growth and a stronger dollar will have a significant impact on many U.S. firms, but may have some benefits for the economy as a whole.

    Looking Back, Looking Ahead

    30 September 2014
    Real GDP is now estimated to have risen at a 4.6% annual rate in 2Q14. However, the second quarter’s strength must be balanced against the first quarter’s weakness (a -2.1% pace). As the third quarter ends, we still don’t have a complete picture. However, figures are likely to suggest a moderately strong pace of growth and a gradual taking up of economic slack.

    The Dots

    23 September 2014
    As was widely anticipated, Federal Reserve policymakers reduced the monthly pace of asset purchases by another $10 billion and kept the “considerable time” language. Fed policymakers revised slightly their forecasts of growth, unemployment, and inflation. However, the really interesting item in the Fed’s Summary of Economic Projections was the dot plot, the projections of the appropriate year-end level of the federal funds rate for each of the next few years. There is a huge range of uncertainty among Fed officials.

    Mind Your Language!

    16 September 2014
    The Federal Open Market Committee is widely expected to take another trip to Taper Town on Wednesday, reducing the monthly pace of asset purchases by another $10 billion, one step closer to ending the program in late October. The more interesting issue is whether we’ll see any change in the Fed’s forward guidance on short-term interest rates – specifically, whether the FOMC will jettison the “considerable time” language.

    Forex

Global Outlook

Low Oil Prices Hurting U.S. Shale Operations

October 22, 2014, Wednesday
Slumping oil prices are putting pressure on U.S. drillers. The number of active rigs drilling for oil and gas fell by their most in two months, according to the latest data from oil services firm Baker Hughes. There were 19 oil rigs that were removed from operation as of Oct. 17, compared to the prior week.

Pick Your Poison: The Bear Vs. The Bull

October 22, 2014, Wednesday
The engine that is the U.S. economy is strong and will continue to support earnings growth in the high single-digits, markets aren’t absolutely expensive looking at 2014 and 2015 expected earnings (mid-teens multiple), global central bankers are committed to getting inflation back and won’t stop until they do, the cure for low commodity prices is low commodity prices.

There She Goes, My Beautiful World

October 22, 2014, Wednesday
The S&P 500 spent almost two full years, between the fall of 2012 and this past September, above its 200-day moving average. For 475 consecutive trading days, stocks remained in a pristine, untouched uptrend - the longest such event in stock market history.

Downtown Josh Brown On Smart Money Being Stupid

October 22, 2014, Wednesday
Joshua Brown, CEO of Ritholtz Wealth Management, is known for a lot of things -television appearances, tweeting as @downtownjoshbrown to his 86,000 followers, a widely read blog and his story of going from a commission-based broker to a fee-based adviser. It's a story captured perfectly in the name of his website: TheReformedBroker.com.

Recommendations

Punjab National Bank 2QFY2015 performance highlights and results update

October 24, 2014, Friday
Punjab National Bank (PNB) reported a weak set of numbers for 2QFY2015 with net interest income (NII) growth of 3.4% yoy, weighed down by a charge of Rs.294cr on account of the funded interest term loan (FITL; on restructured loan). Higher slippages during the quarter deteriorated the asset quality of the bank. The tax rate was higher at 48.1% in 2QFY2015 as compared to 20.5% in 2QFY2014, which affected the earnings.

Exide Industries 2QFY2015 performance highlights and results update

October 24, 2014, Friday
2QFY2015 results disappoint; operating margin below estimates: Exide Industries Ltd (EIL)’s 2QFY2015 results have come in below our estimates, as the company disappointed on the margin front despite double digit revenue growth.