US stock market daily report. (March 12, 2010, Friday)
A court-appointed investigator said in a 2,200 page document that Lehman Brothers failure was due to the company's own senior executives and auditor. Lehman Bothers, who filed for bankruptcy is 2008, used "materially misleading" accounting gimmicks to try to hide the bad investments on the company's books, and to play off the amount of borrowed money. In the report, it is said that Lehman used financial engineering to remove around $50 billion of undesirable assets from its balance sheet at the end of the first and second quarters of 2008, instead of selling those assets at a loss. Coincidently, the company made those moves just months before it filed for bankruptcy; Lehman accountants at Ernst & Young, along with senior executives were all well aware of the money shuffling, according to examiner Mr. Valukas. A major part of the report focused on those accounting maneuvers, known as "Repo 105." included in the report were e-mails from Lehman's global financial controller confirming that "the only purpose or motive for [Repo 105] transactions was reduction in the balance sheet," also stating, "there was no substance to the transactions." Putting aside money shuffling and hiding bad investments, the report was very critical of Lehman's executives, who according to Valukas, "should have done more, done better." However, "the demands for collateral by Lehman's lenders had direct impact on Lehman's liquidity," Valukas also said, "the demands for collateral by Lehman's lenders had direct impact on Lehman's liquidity," "Lehman's available liquidity is central to the question of why Lehman failed." The lenders he mentioned were Citigroup and JPMorgan Chase. Since Lehman Brother's filed for bankruptcy Wall Street crashed, stocks hit 12 year lows and we were faced with the biggest crisis since the Great Depression. Federal Government officials had to pump billions of dollars into the nation's financial system to prevent further damage. Stocks traded in a tight range yet again today, volume was light. Investors were given a better than expected report from the Commerce Department, they reported retail sales rose 0.3% last month. Commodity prices along with the dollar fell; gold fell $1.20 to $1,107.00 and crude oil fell $0.83 to $81.28. Bond prices rose, the yield on the benchmark 10-year note fell to 3.70 from 3.72 Thursday.
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World stock markets daily report (March 12, 2010)
It would be stretching things to say that there has been a clear theme in markets overnight. Indeed, for the most part markets are trading broadly where they were this time yesterday. One exception is the bond market, with UK yields under particular upward pressure as investors await the pre-election Budget on 24 March (and the reaction of credit rating agencies to whatever fiscal consolidation is planned). There was little reaction to the US dataflow yesterday. A small decline in initial jobless claims was welcomed but at 462k the level is still a good way north of where we would like it to be in order to be confident that significant sustained growth in non-farm payrolls lied immediately ahead (beyond the clear positive influences that a rebound from Februarys poor weather and census-related hiring will have). However, there are some signs that the stock of jobless claims is stabilizing . Meanwhile, the January trade balance reported a narrower than expected deficit, with a small fall in exports trumped by a slightly larger fall in imports. Whilst this was the first decline in exports since April last year, this largely reflected a little payback amongst erratics after a 3.4% mom increase in December.
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Indian stock market daily morning report (March 12, 2010, Friday)
Recovery in IT and bank stocks helped the Sensex close positive yesterday. Profit taking was witnessed in auto stocks which capped the gains. Market breadth was weak near about 0.6x. Asian markets are mixed today. While the Nikkei is up, the Hang Seng is trading with a moderate decline.
US stock market opening report (March 12, 2010, Friday)
The triple A rating of the US is at risk, S&P has warned, unless the country adopts a credible medium-term plan to rein in fiscal spending. In a report published yesterday, the ratings agency said that there were risks that external creditors could reduce their US dollar holdings, especially if they conclude that Eurozone members are adopting stronger macroeconomic policies. (FT) In other news, Feds Yellen is said to be Obamas choice for Federal Reserve vice chair. Also in the news, White Houses Summers said US recovery has a very long way to go, however US economy is very close to employment growth and deficit must come down after recovery strengthens. (BBG)
Russian stock market daily evening report (March 12, 2010, Friday)
The beginning of the trading session was rather active against the background of the total positive and stats on the Eurozone. But after a number of messages from the U.S. the eagerness of the players got weaker and reduction started. But the reduction was not deep due to which the Russian markets closed positively.
Indian stock market daily closing report (March 12, 2010)
Markets remained range bound throughout the day and ended flat. Sensex heavyweight Hindustan Unilever lost 4.02% . The Sensex closed at 17,167 down 1 points making high of 17,245 and low of 17,127 and Nifty shut at 5,137 up 4 points making high of 5,158 and low of 5,122. However Nifty March future ended at 11.1 points premium. The breadth remained week and the markets reported low total turnover of Rs 81,256 cr. Among the Realty, Hdil was down 1.35%, Dlf was down .83% and Unitech was down by .27%. In Banking stocks, HDFC Bank down 1.48%, ICICI Bank up .59%, , SBI Bank up .1% and Kotak Bank down by .25%.
Russian stock market daily morning report (March 12, 2010, Friday)
On Thursday the trades at the Russian share market went without any trends and the indices varied little, however still standing higher than the psychologically important level of 1,500 points of the RTS index. Mainly that was due to the relatively calm foreign background Europe and U.S. did not show any kind of serious variations at the markets, commodity grounds were trading calmly also. News from Russia was not aggressive either and there were no trade ideas. No serious price highs or downs were indicated at the most liquid shares costs. Along with that we might outline the shares of Uralkaliy, which upped in price due to the statements by Igor Sechin on the matter of export duty for the potassium fertilizers not being discussed in the government yet.
World stock markets news summary (US, UK, Europe, Asia) (March 12, 2010)
British ruling Labour party cut the opposition Conservatives lead by 2 points but will still fall short of an overall majority after an election expected on May 6, an opinion poll showed. (RTRS) The daily YouGov poll in the Sun newspaper showed the Conservatives unchanged on 37%, Labour up 2 points on 34% and the Liberal Democrats unchanged on 17%. UniCredit has alerted investors in a client note that Britain is at serious risk of a bond market and GBP debacle and faces even more intractable budget woes than Greece. (Telegraph)
Indian stock market and companies daily report (March 12, 2010, Friday)
The benchmarks spurted to their highest level in a month and a half, as European stocks and US index futures moved off their early lows. Banking and IT stocks rose, while auto stocks fell. The market was volatile. The Sensex recovered from the lower level in morning trade, after hitting a fresh intraday low. The intraday recovery gathered steam, with the Sensex surging to the day's high. The market pared gains after hitting fresh intraday high in early afternoon trade. The Sensex surged at the end of trade, as European stocks recovered from early lows. The Sensex and the Nifty closed in the green, with gains of 0.4% and 0.3%, respectively. The BSE Mid-cap and Small-cap indices underperformed the benchmark indices and closed with losses of 0.2% and 0.5%, respectively. Among the front-liners, Sun Pharma, Sterlite, Bharti Airtel, Wipro and ICICI Bank were up by 1-3%, while HUL, Hindalco, RCOM, ACC and Tata Power were down by 1-4%. In the mid-cap segment, Core Projects & Technologies, AIA Engineering, Fortis Health, CRISIL and Gammon Infra were up by 4-6%, while Shree Renuka Sugars, National Fertilizers, Indusind Bank, EID Parry, and REI Six Ten were down by 4-6%.
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| | Commodities |
Gold and silver daily commentary (March 12, 2010)
It would seem as if a number of outside market forces are providing the bull camp in gold and silver with an early lift today. Clearly seeing the Greenback fall back to the February lows and seeing a host of non Dollar currencies rising sharply, have given the bull camp the currency edge in the early Friday morning trade. With a number of equity market measures also managing to make new highs for the year and in some cases, seeing the highest trade since late summer of 2008, there would appear to be a wave of positive economic sentiment in place. Perhaps the trade was emboldened by favorable Euro zone Industrial Production readings, or perhaps the up beat Chinese economic data from early in the week was finally given some credence. On the other hand, some players are suggesting that the possible appointment of Janet Yellen, as Vice Chair of the US Federal Reserve is supportive because she is supposed to be a noted policy dove. In looking forward, the trade will be presented with a US retail sales reading this morning which is mostly expected to show a minor downtick, but that impact might be countervailed by a possible minor up tick in sentiment figures later in the US trading session.
Commodities daily update: precious metals, base metals, crude oil (March 12, 2010)
India's gold collections under exchangetraded funds rose 86 percent on year to 9.622 tonnes in February on increased retail investor participation, data from the funds showed. Euro zone industrial production in January recorded its biggest monthly increase on record and figures for December underwent a radical upward revision, pointing to stronger-than-expected economic recovery. Deliverable copper inventories in warehouses monitored by the Shanghai Futures Exchange rose 5 percent from a week earlier, while deliverable aluminium inventories climbed 3 percent, the exchange said on Friday.
Nymex crude oil prices closed at $82.34/bbl on Thursday
Crude oil prices gained yesterday on the back of weaker dollar. Positive economic data from US is indicating that the economic recovery is on track and this factor can help in increasing demand for crude oil from the worlds largest consumer.
Spot Gold prices gained marginally on Thursday
Spot Gold prices gained marginally on Thursday after continuously facing pressure this week from the strong dollar. However, the greenback weakened yesterday helping the yellow metal prices to gain. Risk appetite in the financial markets weakened the low-yielding dollar as investors flocked towards high yielding and riskier investments.
| | Forex |
Diverse US fundamentals supported the demand growth for the high-risk currencies, 13 March 2010
Daily Forex Analysis (March 12, 2010), 12 March 2010
In spite of the released diverse European statistics, the euro rate managed to win back its previous losses, 11 March 2010
Currency pairs technical review (March 11, 2010), 11 March 2010
Shelter-currencies received substantial push for growth, 11 March 2010
Daily Forex Analysis (March 11, 2010), 11 March 2010
Shelter-currencies received substantial push for growth, 11 March 2010
Currency pairs technical review (March 10, 2010), 10 March 2010
The sharp fluctuations in the matter of budget crises in Greece have strong influence on the dynamics of the major currency pairs., 10 March 2010
Currency pairs technical review (March 9, 2010), 9 March 2010
Currency market weekly review (March 1 5, 2010), 8 March 2010
Currency pairs technical review (March 8, 2010), 8 March 2010
Positive European news rendered support to the European currencies against the US dollar, 5 March 2010
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| Latest Blog Entry |
Wealth Management: How Can We Trust Anyone When | 12 March 2010
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| Stocks Recommendations |
IL&FS Transportation Networks IPO review and analysis by Angel Broking, 13 March 2010
IL&FS Transportation Network's (ITNL) IPO, we believe, is reasonably priced considering the emerging growth opportunities, its strong portfolio of assets and sound parentage. Further, on comparative valuations, ITNL (based on the limited information provided in the RHP, refer Exhibit1) scores over IRB Infra and would trade at 33% discount to IRB Infra on FY2010E P/BV. Hence, owing to attractive relative valuations, we recommend a Subscribe view on the IPO. On account of having strong backing from IL&FS, we believe that going ahead ITNL will enjoy an edge over competition while bidding for new projects or approaching lenders for financing its projects. ITNL is particularly well-placed due to its affiliation with IL&FS in light of the new National Highway Authority of India (NHAI) norms which specifies that a developer/asset owner cannot bid for new projects if 3 or more of its projects are awaiting financial closure.
IL&FS Transportation Networks IPO review and analysis by Nirmal Bang, 12 March 2010
IL&FS Transportation Networks Limited (ITNL) is an established surface transportation infrastructure company and one of the largest private sector BOT road operators in India. ITNL was incorporated in the year 2000 by IL&FS to consolidate their existing road infrastructure projects and to pursue various new project initiatives in the area of surface transportation infrastructure. ITNL is involved right from the conceptualization of projects to the commissioning of operations and maintenance. The company went global in March 2008 by acquiring Elsamex S.A. (Elsamex) a provider of maintenance services primarily for highways and roads in Spain and other countries. ITNL has a pan]India presence in the BOT road sector with a diverse project portfolio consisting of 17 road projects, comprising approximately 9,397 Lane kms, which includes 4,086 Lane kms under operation and maintenance and 5,311 Lane kms under development (of which 1244 Lane kms under construction). ITNL has presence in state highways, roads, flyovers and brides in the states of Andhra Pradesh, Delhi, Gujarat, Maharashtra, Karnataka, Uttar Pradesh, Kerala, Jharkhand and Rajasthan.
Planet Payment (LON:PPT) report: Strong strategic development, 12 March 2010
Planet Payment has announced that it has received certification from its core existing client, TSYS (TSS.N), the $3bn market cap US-based global electronic payments processor. Planet Payment currently provides TSYS with its market-leading Multi- Currency Pricing (MCP) service. However, Planet Payment is now fully certified also for its iPay payment gateway to be offered into the TSYS acquirer and ISO customer base that will allow merchants to utilise the Planet Payment iPay payment gateway.
H&T Group (LON:HAT) report: Sell-off unwarranted, buy ahead of finals, 12 March 2010
H&T has sold-off by 17% since its trading update on 22/1. This seems unwarranted given the statement guided that FY09 results would be towards the top end of market expectations (implying 2-3% upside to our own earnings forecasts). The early caution shown with respect to 2010 guidance was only to be expected given there can be little certainty on gold purchasing volumes so early in the year
Dragon Oil (LON:DGO) report: Successfully Test at Dzheitune, 12 March 2010
Dzheitune A/142 produced at 2,103b/d in tests. Dzheitune 13/143 well produced at a rate of 2,168 b/d
Carphone Warehouse (LON:CPW) report: BT Group launches its broadband Spring sale, 12 March 2010
BT Group has announced the launch of cut-price broadband bundles, for example at an initial 7.49/month (a 20Mb/s Option 1 package is on offer at 7.99/month for 3 months, reverting to 15.99 in an 18-month contract), following Ofcoms Sep09 removal of pricing restrictions. BT states; the new package is available online for the first half of March for new customers buying through the bt.com web site.
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| Global Outlook |
Crude prices stagnate amid doubts about global demand, 13 March 2010
Crude oil prices tread water for the week as uncertainty about demand continued to weigh on the market. Prices were down slightly on the week, with the benchmark West Texas Intermediate settling on Friday at $81.24 a barrel, compared with $81.50 a week ago. Not even relatively bullish forecasts for oil demand, such as the International Energy Agencys report on Friday raising its forecast by 70,000 barrels a day for 2010, or the decline in the dollar could propel oil prices forward. One analyst even predicted crude oil prices dipping below $60 a barrel in the second half of the year. Ronald-Peter Stferle, a raw materials analyst at Austrias Erste Bank, said that oil is relatively expensive by historical standards, and current prices are not justified by demand.
Indian Companies are gearing up to converge with International Financial Reporting Standards, 13 March 2010
Convergence with International Financial Reporting Standards (IFRS) by 2011 has become mandatory. The Ministry of Corporate Affairs (MCA) recently announced dates for achieving convergence with IFRS by next year. This landmark announcement has set to rest the uncertainty surrounding IFRS convergence in India. While the countdown to convergence has already begun, companies are confronted with formidable challenges, on the verge of initiation of the actual transition process. They have innumerable queries awaiting reply. Several important issues need to be addressed urgently. The phased approach to IFRS convergence - which is consistent with the current proposal in the United States of America - will greatly smoothen the IFRS convergence journey for both medium-sized as well as small listed companies. Transition from the Indian Generally Accepted Accounting Practices (IGAAP) to the International Financial Reporting Standards (IFRS) has gained momentum over the last few months.
Indian Union Railway Minister presented a populist railway budget, 13 March 2010
Mamata Banerjee, the Union Railway Minister, under the leadership of Prime Minister Manmohan Singh, played safe and presented a please-all budget on 24th February, which according to her is aimed at not only growth but also the common man. With her decision to keep railway tariffs unchanged for the next year, she managed to bring cheer to the masses but could not provide concrete answers as to how she would meet expenditures to overhaul the 157-year-old railway network. Through the budget, she made way for the private players to join as partners in important projects. This will allow the railways to raise money and fund key projects. The proposed budget laid an outlay of Rs 41,426 crore. Of these, Rs 4,411 crore will be spent on laying new railway lines covering 1,002 km and Rs 1,302 crore will be spent on passenger amenities. This is the highest ever planned outlay to provide an efficient railway network through dedicated freight and passenger corridors.
Indian Government needs to introduce faster reforms for the pharma industry, 13 March 2010
The markets have already given a thumbs up to the Budget as the Sensex soared before giving up some gains. Industry stalwarts have been analyzing what aided markets despite low expectations prior to the Budget. Also apprehensions with respect to the extent of the stimulus withdrawal possible in the Budget had kept market participants away from investing. Union Budget 2010-11 is not a gamechanging Budget but is an incremental and conservative one to keep the economy on track. For the pharma industry the increase in the weighted deduction for in-house R&D from 150% to 200% is a positive. It will be effective till 31st Mar 12. The finance ministers decision to improve food security and healthcare systems in the country is also highly commendable. In the current years Budget, the government increased the outlay to the healthcare sector to Rs 22,300 crore from Rs 19,534 crore. The annual rural health survey for effective spend under the NRHM scheme and the convergence of NREGA with wider health insurance coverage through Rashtriya Swasth Bima Yojana is an innovative step to increase healthcare cover in rural India. The only positive step to help indigenous manufacture of consumables and implants is the import duty waiver for the manufacture of orthopedic implants.
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